A presidential battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has been rated likelier than ever before after these key runners dominated in Tuesday’s round of primaries.
US Election Betting Odds
According to the various online bookmakers offering US election betting odds, Hillary Clinton is now 1.24 to be the Democrat torchbearer and 1.34 to become the POTUS. This represents a 96% and 75% probability respectively.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has a 1.21 odds or 83% probability of becoming the Republican torchbearer into the 2016 US elections and has US election betting odds of 5.3, a 19% probability of becoming the POTUS.
From the previous primaries results, the shift in Donald Trump’s odds over the past few weeks has been astonishing, proving just how eve the reliable sources of momentum can transmute the US election betting markets.
After he lost the primaries in Wisconsin a few weeks ago, Donald Trump registered his lowest ranking ever since he notched his first victory down to a staggering value of 45%.
However, all this has changed since he recorded landslide victories in his home state of NY and in Tuesday’s quintet. Similarly, the US election betting odds regarding a brokered or contested convention have been distorted.
After the primaries at Wisconsin, Donald Trump was rated at a percentage of 78 to record a win in the fewer than 1,237 delegates that he needed to secure an automatic nomination.
Fast forward to today, the “Yes” in the contested convention market has shot down to a percentage of 33 and US election betting odds of 3.00. According to some of the delegates prediction models, Trump is way ahead of the required rate.
Besides his victory on Tuesday, Donald trump has also received a boost with the news of the 39 Pennsylvania delegates who throw all the weight behind him. If each of these delegates keeps their word at the party conventional that will be held in July, then Trump’s 1,237 target will be reduced.
Is there a likelihood of things turning around again? The answer to this hinges mostly on the Indiana Primary. If Donald trump wins the majority of the 57 delegates, any chance of stopping him from clinching the party nomination will close.
However, if Ted Cruz wins the majority of the 57 delegates, the #neverTrump campaign will be vitalized ahead of the remaining few races.
If Donald Trump wins, who are likely to become his running mate?
Newt Gingrich
Recently, Trump was quoted saying that he wanted his running mate to be a candidate who has a deep political experience. Newt is stronger in this area as compared to his competitors and has always been the one person who has always stood to defend and agree with Trump’s policies.
He has dominated the US election betting market as Trump’s running mate and is also a well-known figure in the United States politics. Punters at Ladbrokes have driven Newt down to us election betting odds of 2.00 to become the running mate of Trump, which represents a 50% chance.
However, there is no clear cut reason as to why Gingrich should become Trump’s running mate, beside the experience in politics. Unlike his other rivals, it is questionable if he will manage to sing the Democrat voters or any influential state.
Additionally, he has a complicated private life and potentially negative as the Republican nominee and there is very little reason to assume that he can improve Trump’s tarnished image amongst the Hispanics and Women.
Joni Ernst
Unlike Gingrich, Joni Ernst, the Lowa senator could help Trump win votes among the ladies and probably swing an influential state in Trumps favor. She is definitely a candidate to keep track of in the Republican politics and has heavy support from some of the Republican donors such as the Club for Growth.
Her overall, anti-government style is indicative of a one-time grassroots protagonist and the 2008 Vice President Sarah Palin, but with her military career behind, I’m positive she will command respect from both men and women.
She has also been popular on the US election betting market recently, even though she doesn’t receive as much coverage as Gingrich. With that said, she also has a downfall, being the lack of political experience that Trump wants, as she only entered into the senate two years ago.
Chris Christie
He is a New Jersey Governor and he was the first leadership rival to endorse and support Donald Trump after he quit the race in February.
From the look of things, he is also likely to play a very huge role in the Republican campaign as well as any future administration. However, we still can’t quit figure what he will bring to the table.
Jeff Sessions
He has probably played one of the most important role in Trump’s campaign of becoming the nominee in the Republican nomination having swayed the Southern voters away from Cruz as the vital pre-Super Tuesday moment.
Most people regard him as a key player and intellectual leader in determining the future of the Republican policies on immigration. In fact, he supports Trump’s idea of building a wall on the Mexican-US border as well as disdain for all the trade deals between the US and Mexico.
Sarah Palin
So what do you think of Sarah Palin, who according to neuro surgeon and a former presidential aspirant Ben Carson, is on the short list? She faithfully supported Donald Trump during his campaign trail and has continued backing the Republican nominee in his wall-to-wall media agenda that we’ve all witnessed since last year.
There is a huge crossover between Trumps and Sarah’s supporters. However, in a recent interview, she said she strongly believes that she is the perfect fit for the job, without forgetting her limited appeal to a split electorate.
